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Home INDONESIA POLITICAL NEWS

6 Charts That Explain the Vote

by
November 8, 2024
in INDONESIA POLITICAL NEWS
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6 Charts That Explain the Vote
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As the United States and the world prepares for a second Donald Trump presidency, the exit polling and demographic data behind the outcome of Tuesday’s election will only become clearer in the days and weeks to come.

Foreign Policy looked at what factors shaped the election and how it compared with other elections that took place around the world this year, from Mexico to India and beyond.


1. U.S. Early Voting Timelines Differ From Other Countries

While some Americans went to the polls on Election Day on Nov. 5, others cast their ballots weeks before. Each state has a different timeline for in-person early voting, which ranges from 46 days before the election in states such as Minnesota to only day-of voting in states such as Alabama.

Number of Days for Early In-Person Voting

In other parts of the world, there isn’t the same flexibility. Indonesia holds the title for the largest one-day election, where its 205 million registered voters only have a six-hour window to cast their ballots. However, many countries hold elections on the weekend or designate their election day as a public holiday to make voting more accessible to workers.

India’s Election Has a 44-Day Voting Period

India made headlines during its national elections this year for its 44-day voting period. Due to the country’s size and the logistics required to make sure that registered voters had access to in-person polling stations, the election took place in several phases.

Sources: Vote.org, Times of India


2. The United States’ Perpetual Election Cycle Is Unique

The United States’ unrestricted campaign cycle enables what feels like a perpetual presidential election year. Typically, candidates announce their intentions to run in the spring the year before an election.

Campaign Timeline Lengths

However, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential bid on Nov. 15, 2022, 721 days before Election Day. President Joe Biden announced his reelection bid on April 25, 2023, 560 days before Election Day—before Vice President Kamala Harris took over in July.

On Nov. 5, Harris only had 107 days to make her case to U.S. voters. But even this is not the norm in other parts of the world: Many countries have regulations restricting the campaign period or tie campaigns to their government system, such as an election being initiated when the prime minister suspends parliament.

In Mexico, which held general elections in June, there is only a 90-day window for official campaigns—though parties can announce their selected candidate earlier. This is followed by a three-day “blackout” period before the election begins.

Sources: NPR, Associated Press, Reuters, New York Times


3. How Does Immigration Really Shape the Vote?

Immigration featured prominently in the 2024 U.S. election season. According to a New York Times-Siena College poll conducted in late October, 15 percent of likely voters said immigration was the most important factor when deciding whom they would vote for. But what does the data tell us about the U.S. immigrant population itself?

Foreign-Born Population in the United States

The U.S. foreign-born population has steadily increased since the 1970s. In the last two decades, the U.S. immigrant population has grown by almost 50 percent; in 2022, immigrants made up approximately 14 percent of the total population. Though these figures include unauthorized migrants, as well as temporary migrants (such as asylum-seekers, refugees, and lawful permanent residents), who can’t vote yet, naturalized citizens now make up a record number of eligible voters in the United States.

As of 2022, 23.8 million naturalized citizens made up 10 percent of the U.S. electorate—with 30 percent of the cohort hailing from Mexico, India, and China alone, followed by the Philippines (6 percent) and Vietnam (4 percent). Other immigrant groups with relatively high naturalization rates include those from El Salvador, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala.

Foreign-Born Eligible Voters in the United States

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Pew Research Center


4. How Did Voter Turnout Compare?

U.S. voter turnout on Nov. 5 is projected to be around 65 percent, with more than 158 million ballots counted, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. That number is a dip from the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which registered a historic 67 percent turnout.

U.S. Voter Turnout Over Time

This year, Indonesia (82 percent) and Sri Lanka (79 percent) had some of the highest voter turnout globally. In Indonesia, which holds the largest single-day election in the world, restaurants handed out free food and coffee to voters amid heavy rain. In Sri Lanka, more than 13 million voters headed to the polls for the first time since the country spiraled into an economic crisis in 2022.

Comparison of Global Voter Turnout in 2024 Elections

By contrast, the countries with some of the lowest voter turnout rates this year were Pakistan (48 percent) and Bangladesh (42 percent), where opposition leaders were either barred from running or boycotted the election. The United Kingdom registered its lowest voter turnout in a general election since 2001, despite the Labour Party’s landslide victory. Similarly, South Africa’s voter turnout (59 percent) was the lowest in the country’s 30-year democratic history.

Sources: The Election Project; news reports and various election commission data compiled by FP staff


5. Delayed Results Don’t Always Signal a Problem

The 2020 U.S. presidential election took four days to call and was plagued by lawsuits and conspiracy theories surrounding election integrity and the electoral process. Although many state election officials took action to make the process smoother in 2024, there were still concerns in some swing states where the election was tight.

Counting mail-in and absentee ballots can delay official results and leave room for election misinformation to spiral, as it did among then-President Donald Trump and his allies in 2020. However, delayed results do not always indicate that there is something wrong in election proceedings. Other countries have longer periods of time between their election days and the release of official results as votes are counted and verified. See below how the U.S. 2020 election compares to those held elsewhere in the world in 2024:

Number of Days to Announce Results

Indonesia’s presidential election in February was officially called after 34 days—on the day of the deadline for announcing the official results. The winner, Prabowo Subianto, had claimed victory earlier with a clear lead. Though his rivals planned to file a legal complaint, the official announcement took as long as it did due to the laborious process of counting ballots. The same was true of the counting process in India this year, which occurred on just a single day a few days after voting ended.

In Venezuela, the results were delayed due to President Nicolás Maduro contesting tallies that indicated that he lost the election on July 28. The issue made its way to the Venezuelan Supreme Court, which declared him the winner after 25 days of upheaval over the results. Some countries, including the United States, have rejected Venezuela’s vote certification.

Sources: Associated Press, Al Jazeera, CNN, Guardian, Electoral Commission of South Africa


6. The Countdown to Trump’s Second Term Begins

It took roughly six hours for The Associated Press to call the U.S. presidential election after the final polls closed on Tuesday, but Americans will wait 76 days before President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in. Though President Joe Biden’s lame-duck period may seem long, this waiting game is not unique to the United States.

Comparison of Lame Duck Periods

Indonesia held its election in February, but President Prabowo Subianto didn’t assume office until Oct. 20, 214 days later. Similarly, Mexico elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, on June 3—but she assumed office 120 days later, on Oct. 1. And though Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared himself the winner of the contested election on July 29, he will officially be sworn in on Jan. 10, 2025.

However, some elections this year saw quicker turnarounds. Voters in India, Bangladesh, and South Africa reelected their leaders, all of whom assumed office within 20 days. The shortest lame-duck period was in the United Kingdom, where Keir Starmer was appointed prime minister as soon as results were announced on July 5. (Sri Lanka is a notable runner-up: President Anura Kumara Dissanayake was sworn in a day after election results were announced on Sept. 22.)

Sources: Various news reports compiled by FP staff



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