Following an earthquake off the coast of Russia that caused tsunamis fears this week, some in Spain have wondered whether something similar could happen on one of the country’s many coastlines.
A massive earthquake measuring 8.8 struck the east coast of Russia this week, triggering tsunami warnings across the North Pacific.
In Hawaii, citizens were evacuated following wave surges and a significant retreat of sea water. Other countries such as Japan, the Philippines and Chile have also taken precautions.
The events have caused many to recall the devastating 2004 Boxing Day tsunami that killed over 200,000 people in fourteen counties including Thailand and Indonesia.
It’s also led many around the world to wonder about their own tsunami risk. So, what about Spain? It is, after all, a country with almost 8,000 km of coastline.
READ ALSO: What are the chances of a big earthquake happening in Spain?
Has a tsunami ever hit Spain?
Firstly, a bit of background. The idea that tsunamis have never affected Spain isn’t true, but it’s not like they’ve exactly been a recent phenomena on the Iberian peninsula. National Geographic notes that in November 1755 neighbouring Lisbon was rocked by a huge earthquake measuring between 8.7 and 9.0 on the Richter scale, which then triggered a tsunami that reached five metres and also hit the coasts of Spain and Morocco.
In Cadiz the waves reportedly reached 18 metres, causing damage to the city walls and flooding from Puerto de Santa María down to Tarifa. In Huelva, towns such as Ayamonte and Lepe suffered devastating losses and damage.
Beyond the Atlantic, the Mediterranean has also had destructive tsunamis in the past though not particularly affecting Spain. According to the interactive Tsumaps project, the area of the Med most likely to suffer a tsunami is the Hellenic arc – as in countless historical examples such as 1303, 1908 and 1956 – but that’s not to say that Spain has been entirely immune. In 2003 a small earthquake in northern Algeria generated waves of 2 metres that reached the Balearic Islands.
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Could a tsunami ever hit Spain?
The likelihood of a tsunami hitting Spain is probably higher than many might realise.
In 2022, the Intergovernmental Ocean Commission warned that the probability of a tsunami of more than one metre occurring in the Mediterranean in the next 30 years is 100 percent, a figure based on the study Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
In Spain, experts seem to think the risk is mainly concentrated in two areas: the Alborán Sea and the Atlantic coast. The Averroes marine fault, located off the Andalusian coast, could theoretically generate waves of up to six metres that would reach land in just half an hour. Furthermore, according to Tsumaps, there is around a 10 percent probability of a one-metre tsunami hitting Huelva or Cádiz in the next 50 years and a 3 percent chance of a 3-meter tsunami.
However, another study on tsunami probabilities in the Mediterranean notes that the Alboran Sea (the western most point of the Med) is actually one of the most seismically active areas in the country.
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Due to its high capacity for tectonic movement, the Med could cause tsunamis with the potential to hit the south-east of Spain. Among the most affected coasts would be those between Valencia and Málaga, including the Balearic Islands.
Emilio Carreño, director of the National Seismic Network, has highlighted the Spanish coastline from Torrevieja all the way down to the Strait of Gibraltar as the area most prone to future tsunamis.
Studies have also identified areas at lower risk, mainly off the Cantabrian coast in northern Spain. Here, if there were a tsunami, waves would likely not exceed a metre and mainly affect the coasts of Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country.
Due to the not insignificant risk of a tsunami in Spain, some towns in southern Spain have already begun to implement action and prevention protocols, such as the Huelva Tsunami Plan.
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