A new report compiled by the Turkish National Intelligence Academy on Israel’s 12-day war with Iran suggests that Ankara must take a comprehensive set of steps, ranging from ramping up its military deterrence to constructing a new national security architecture, in order to adapt to the latest shifts in modern warfare.
The report, released last week, calls for immediate reforms to Ankara’s early warning systems, urges the construction of shelters and recommends robust measures to counter potential espionage activities targeting Turkey’s defence sector and industry.
Although Turkey has made significant investments in its defence industry over the past two decades, the report highlights that notable gaps and vulnerabilities remain.
Since 2016, Ankara has emerged as a drone power, producing hundreds of armed unmanned systems such as the Anka and TB2 Bayraktar, which have shifted the balance in conflicts in Ukraine, Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh.
While Turkey is working towards producing its fifth-generation Kaan fighter jet by 2030 and manufacturing air defence systems like the Hisar, its current fighter jet fleet – composed mostly of F-16s – is rapidly ageing.
The report provides a detailed analysis of Israel’s aerial superiority, noting that its military was able to deploy 300 aircraft in a complex operation involving F-16s, F-35s, armed drones and aerial tankers.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on
Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
The attack also featured special operations forces on the ground – or the recruitment of local actors – to strike specific military and civilian targets, and the weaponisation of platforms such as WhatsApp to locate senior officials.
Titled “12-Day War and Lessons for Turkey”, the report asserts that the conflict has once again confirmed the critical importance of integrating manned and unmanned systems, such as drones, and modernising the Turkish air force’s inventory.
“Throughout the war, the necessity of a multi-layered and comprehensive air defence system has also become clear,” it states.
“Moreover, Israel’s inability to fully intercept advanced hypersonic missiles launched from Iran, despite extensive support from its allies, underscores the need for Turkey to intensify its own initiatives in this area.”
The report urges Ankara to focus on serial production and capacity-building for advanced military systems, including ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.
“Weaknesses in Iran’s air defence systems have underscored the vital importance of protecting critical facilities with robust air defence,” it says. “Special attention should be paid to low-altitude air defence systems, particularly at strategic locations such as those housing security bureaucracies.”
Additionally, the report recommends establishing an early warning system that covers the entire country, constructing well-equipped shelters, including making use of underground metro stations in major cities, and taking measures to minimise civilian casualties.
Significant vulnerability
A significant vulnerability for Iran, the report notes, has been the widespread use of technological tools and applications in daily life, such as WhatsApp, a risk that could also affect Turkey.
“Given that many global software and IT companies maintain ‘special relationships’ with Israel, it is especially important to keep such technologies away from strategic institutions and facilities,” the report warns.
The report also suggests that Turkey should deepen its alliances, as Israel has benefited from access to weaponry, intelligence and logistics through its partnerships, whereas organisations like Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation failed to support Iran due to a lack of robust security mechanisms.
“In this context, Turkey’s recent steps to repair traditional alliances, which were damaged during the Syrian civil war, have become even more significant,” the report adds. “Efforts in recent years to improve relations with the United States have positively impacted Turkey’s ties with Nato, and it is considered advantageous to continue this process.”
The report further emphasises the importance of Turkey’s efforts to build its own security alliances with regional countries such as Pakistan, Syria, Qatar and Azerbaijan.
‘Eli Cohens inside Iran’: How Israel’s war exposed deep infiltration and intelligence gaps
The report asserts that the 12-day conflict demonstrates that defence cannot be ensured by military means alone.
“It has become clear that without comprehensive deterrence in the political, economic, and technological spheres, it is impossible to deter the adversary or secure victory through military means alone,” it states.
Furthermore, the report notes that Israel has utilised the Republic of Cyprus as a strategic asset in the region.
“It is essential for Turkey to closely monitor this issue and take the necessary precautions,” it says. “Similarly, Israel’s recent interest in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) cannot be explained solely by commercial or economic motives.” There are also reports suggesting that Israelis have been purchasing property in northern Syria.
Notably, the vice president of Israel Aerospace Industries, an Israeli state arms company, wrote a column recently suggesting that his country could back a southern takeover of Northern Cyprus to counter the threat of Turkey, which backs the administration there.
The report warns that, in a scenario where Israel and Iran continue to engage in mutual attacks, Tehran could also pose a threat to Ankara. “At this stage, Turkey feels at least as threatened by Iran’s nuclear activities, extensive missile and UAV arsenals, and regional militia networks as Israel and the United States do,” it states.
“However, in the event of heightened tensions between Turkey and Iran, there is no guarantee that Tehran will refrain from mobilising its capabilities against Ankara. Indeed, during previous Iraq-centered crises, the strongest reactions against Turkey came from Iran-backed militia leaders, who have occasionally carried out harassment attacks against Turkish bases in Iraq.”
The report also highlights that active conflict between Iran and Israel could trigger regional instability along Turkey’s eastern borders.
“Israel’s targeting of major cities with large ethnic minority populations, such as Tabriz and Kermanshah, during the initial attack served purposes beyond the destruction of missile facilities,” it notes.
“Therefore, Turkey must resolutely take all necessary steps to prevent the recurrence of negative developments in Iran, similar to those seen recently in Iraq and Syria.”
