According to the report, the next stage for global markets will hinge on how consumers respond to rising prices. Corporate earnings strength and sustained growth momentum in the face of policy headwinds have led UOBAM to adjust their positive probabilities upwards. They now see a 50% chance of continued growth, compared to 40% last quarter. That said, they still see a 25% chance of recession and a 25% chance of stagflation.
UOBAM’s fourth quarter strategy is therefore to be neutral weighted between equities and fixed income. Anthony Raza, Head of UOBAM Multi-Asset Strategy, explained that this neutrality is strategic rather than reflecting a lack of conviction. He said, “Given the equal probabilities of market-positive vs market-negative scenarios, we believe a neutral and diversified approach is the most resilient and offers the best chance of achieving positive returns across a range of outcomes.”
Within equities, UOBAM views Asia as a relative bright spot, supported by stronger currencies, attractive valuations and expanding domestic demand. Europe is also thought to be showing signs of recovery after two subdued years. Meanwhile, the firm maintains a balanced outlook for the US, noting that tariff costs are beginning to filter through to the wider economy,
Within fixed income, UOBAM analysts believe that developed market economies will remain resilient, but inflation risks are rising. As a result, they maintain a neutral stance on duration and credits, and expect 10-year bond yields to trade between 4.0% and 4.5%.
For deeper insights across equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities, read the full Q4 2025 Investment Strategy: https://www.uobam.com.sg/insights/qis4q25.page
About UOB Asset Management
UOB Asset Management Ltd (UOBAM) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Overseas Bank Limited. Established in 1986, UOBAM has nearly 40 years of experience in managing collective investment schemes and discretionary funds in Singapore, making us among the largest unit trust managers by assets under management. As of 31 August 2025, we manage 64 unit trusts in Singapore and together with our subsidiaries, oversee S$38.8 billion in clients’ assets.
Headquartered in Singapore, UOBAM has a strong presence across Asia, with business and investment offices in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Our network includes UOB Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd in Malaysia, a joint venture with Ping An Fund Management Company Limited (China) and strategic alliances with partners such as Wellington Management Singapore.
UOBAM is one of the region’s most awarded asset managers, with over 360 awards won. In 2025, we were recognised as the Best Asset Management Company (Regional) by the Asia Asset Management and previously named Best Asset Management House in Asia – 20 Years in 2023. Our digital innovation has also earned top honours, including Best Digital Wealth Management in Asia[1] and Best Robo Advisory Initiative[2] for 3 consecutive years as of 2024.
As a leader in sustainable investing, UOBAM was awarded Best application of ESG in ASEAN[3] (2023) and has received multiple sustainability accolades in Indonesia and Thailand. Our artificial intelligence capabilities were also recognised with the Most Innovative Application of Artificial Intelligence (ASEAN) for 2 consecutive years[4].
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[1] Awarded by Asia Asset Management |
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[2] Awarded by The Digital Banker for the Global Retail Banking Innovations Award |
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[3] Awarded by Asia Asset Management |
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[4] As of 2025, by Asia Asset Management |
Source: UOB Asset Management
Reporter: PR Wire
Editor: PR Wire
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