Who gains most? — RT India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to two African countries, South Africa and Ethiopia, within the span of a month, reflect more than routine diplomatic engagement. Together, they signal a deeper evolution in India’s foreign policy, from the legacy of non-alignment to a more confident form of strategic alignment rooted in Global South solidarity.

Interestingly, both South Africa and Ethiopia are members of BRICS, and India is set to host the BRICS Summit in 2026. At a moment when the BRICS bloc is under renewed pressure from the United States, India’s outreach to these two countries underscores its determination to pursue strategic autonomy while standing firmly with its partners in the Global South.

India’s engagement with Africa also underscores its willingness to take the mantle of Global South leadership, prioritizing trust, development, and mutual respect. More importantly, Modi’s visits to South Africa in November and Ethiopia in December signal India’s strategic autonomy and willingness to uphold principled partnerships despite political and economic pressure from Washington.

South Africa and the Global South moment

South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025 unfolded amid acute global turbulence. Intensifying great-power competition, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and growing disillusionment with multilateral institutions have eroded trust in global governance. Pretoria also inherited a rare strategic opportunity of global governance led by the Global South. South Africa drew the culmination of a four-year cycle of G20 presidencies led by Global South countries, following Indonesia, India, and Brazil.

Among these, India’s 2023 presidency provided a particularly instructive template, as reflected in South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s opening remarks when he publicly acknowledged the lessons that South Africa has drawn from India’s successful organization of the G20.

During India’s G20 presidency, India’s message to the group comprised of countries from both the global north and south was that a Global South presidency need not be defensive or reactive. Under the ethos of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’, which translates as “The world as one family”, India brought issues to the high table that are priorities for the Global South, including digital public infrastructure, climate finance, multilateral development bank reform, and inclusive growth. Finally, India’s experience of securing a Leaders’ Declaration through negotiations despite deep geopolitical rifts worked as a template for South Africa.

Oddly enough, the prevailing geopolitical environment surrounding Pretoria’s G20 presidency was even more volatile. Tensions over Ukraine and Gaza risked overshadowing development priorities, while growing disillusionment with multilateral institutions and economic nationalism in major economies continues to thicken North–South divides.

As it turns out, South Africa’s starting position was strengthened by a historic institutional shift that was championed by India. It was under India’s G20 presidency that the African Union was elevated as a permanent G20 member. The company of the AU provided Pretoria with both legitimacy and leverage, allowing it to incorporate African priorities within the global economic agenda.

Drawing from India’s experience, South Africa adopted a form of normative leadership that sought to incorporate African concerns in the broader discussion rather than treating them in isolation. Issues such as equitable energy transitions, sustainable infrastructure, pandemic preparedness, and reform of global financial institutions were framed as universal public goods. The aim was not to “Africanize” the G20 agenda, but to demonstrate that Africa’s development challenges are an integral component towards global stability.

Coalition-building formed another pillar of this approach. Much like India in 2023, South Africa relied on flexible, issue-based alignments across different groups it is part of, such as BRICS, the African Union, and the G77+China. Doing this, Pretoria expressed its willingness towards bridge-building over bloc politics. This, in turn, reinforced the Global South’s collective bargaining power without formalized alliances.

India’s influence was also evident in South Africa’s focus on digital public infrastructure. As Africa’s digital economy is hamstrung by uneven access despite innovation, drawing on India’s Digital Public Infrastructure experience, Pretoria advanced continental frameworks for broadband, interoperable payments, digital identity, and cybersecurity. The message was to recognize Africa as a co-architect of global digital governance and not a mere recipient of digital transformation.

Ethiopia and strategic diversification

If the South Africa example represented continuity in Global South leadership, Ethiopia illustrates India’s growing strategic boldness. Modi’s first bilateral visit to Ethiopia on 16-17 December came amid intensifying geopolitical turbulence in the Horn of Africa and the Ethiopian government’s increasingly strained relationship with the West over a wide range of human rights violation allegations.

The visit began with a powerful symbolic gesture when Modi was conferred Ethiopia’s highest civilian honor, the Great Honor Nishan of Ethiopia, by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The award recognized Modi’s leadership as a global statesman and his contribution to strengthening India-Ethiopia relations. Although ceremonial, the award reflected Addis Ababa’s intention to place India among its most trusted strategic partners as it recalibrates its external relationships.

However, it was not the first time the Indian and Ethiopian leaders had met. Modi’s state visit was preceded by several high-level engagements between the two men, including interactions on the sidelines of G20 and BRICS summits. Ethiopia also endorsed India’s leadership role by participating in India-led initiatives such as the Voice of the Global South Summits, underscoring a shared commitment to development equity and reform of global governance institutions.

Crucially, the visit occurred against the backdrop of Ethiopia’s deteriorating ties with the United States. The suspension of Ethiopia’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) benefits in 2022, followed by the withdrawal of humanitarian assistance, delivered a severe blow to Ethiopia’s export-oriented textile and leather sectors. With Donald Trump’s “America First” approach, Ethiopia faces uncertainty over trade access, investment, and diplomatic engagement.

In this context, India represents a strategic diversification partner, a country that can partner with Ethiopia as an equal in its development journey, provide market access for its export-led sectors, and all sans coercive conditionalities. Burdened by IMF conditionalities, although Ethiopia benefited from its inclusion under the G20 Common Framework for debt rescheduling, the country is in dire need of steady investments. Indian private sector involvement could offer Addis Ababa a credible alternative.

On the other hand, the strategic partnership with Ethiopia aligns well with India’s broader ambition of reclaiming its traditional sphere of influence in Africa. Amid intensifying competition from China, Türkiye, and Western powers, India is grappling to position itself, and its partnership with Ethiopia can provide it with the necessary pivot.

Ethiopia’s geostrategic location at the intersection of the Red Sea and the Nile basin makes it pivotal to regional stability and connectivity. And cooperation within BRICS, the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and the Global Biofuel Alliance could further attribute the partnership with a global governance leadership role.

Defying pressure, exercising autonomy

In sum, Modi’s South Africa and Ethiopia visits highlighted India’s willingness to stand in support of its Global South partners, notwithstanding the mounting US pressure.

Both South Africa and Ethiopia, along with India, are facing potential economic fallout from trade disputes and political disagreements with Washington. India knows that it cannot substitute the US economically. However, it can offer Africa something equally valuable: a reliable development-oriented partnership based on mutual respect.

The recent visits were not isolated diplomatic events but part of a sustained effort to reshape international engagement through inclusivity, dignity, and shared growth. This posture reflects India’s evolution from non-alignment to strategic alignment. India is openly choosing partnerships based on shared interests rather than external pressure. 

As global uncertainties persist, India’s Africa outreach strengthens its claim to leadership rooted not in dominance, but in partnership and in the belief that the Global South has the wherewithal to shape its own destiny.